China Re-thinking One-Child Policy as the Population Ages

A story from The TimesOnline - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6841430.ece

Call for more babies as China turns to grey
Michael Sheridan in Shanghai

WHEN the head of family planning in Shanghai said young couples should have more babies because the city was growing old, it sounded like a statement of the obvious.
Yet within days there was a storm of comment on the internet and in state media as people asked whether this meant the government was preparing to relax its one-child policy.
There are signs officials are rethinking the ban, which has prevented 400m births since 1979, because on present trends China’s population will begin to decline by the middle of the century. By then, India will have overtaken it as the most populous nation.
Xie Lingli, the Shanghai family planning official, was forced to explain publicly that he had not deviated from the party line, which restricts most couples in Chinese cities to one child.
The rules allow couples who are both only-children to have two babies. Shanghai has introduced other exceptions, including more leeway for fishermen and farmers. It has also abolished a rule that couples who are allowed more than one child must wait four years between births.
“There’s a huge social demand for second children,” said Yang Henmin, an engineer in Shanghai. “In the end the government cannot control it any more than it can grasp the wind.”
The city’s family planners talk of “encouraging” more births in a change of tone that sounds distinctly like liberalisation by stealth.
“In the past we stressed birth control, not the chance to have a second child. Not many people know these exceptions to the regulations so we were just reminding them,” said Xie.
There are few babies to be seen on the streets of China’s commercial capital. The city is ageing so quickly that by 2020 more than a third of its 19m people will be 60 or over. The city’s pension fund faces bankruptcy.
It is a harbinger of change that will come as a shock to some commentators who portray China as a youthful country that is destined to rule the world. In fact, the one-child policy means China is “greying” fast. On present trends it will grow old before it has a chance to get rich.
Although China’s population has passed 1.3 billion and is still growing, it is expected to peak within three decades. By 2040, India will have 1.5 billion people versus 1.42 billion Chinese, according to Barbara Pillsbury, an expert on population control.
The Chinese media reported her forecast and the Shanghai debate shows that officials have begun to grasp the consequences of the policy.
By the middle of the century China will have more than 330m people over 60, of whom 100m will be over 80. In contrast, the US is predicted to have a younger population because of immigration and higher birth rates.
“We say that four, two, one — that’s four grandparents, two parents and one child — is the usual family structure in Shanghai,” said Tan Jie, a businessman, “so the burden of care is a heavy one.”
Then there is the gender imbalance. Pillsbury said that while the average live birth ratio is 105 boys to 100 girls, in China it is 119 to 100 — the result of abortions by couples desperate for a son.
In Mao Tse-tung’s time, the average Chinese woman had six children. Today she has 1.8. In the past, there were six younger people working to support each old person. In the one-child generation, said Pillsbury, there would be one couple to support each one.
“The figures are getting close to those in Japan and Sweden,” wrote the China Youth Daily, “so Shanghai’s intentions should be praised, but its methods are wrong.”
The newspaper warned that if other provinces did the same, the “strain on society” would be immense. “The government should not ask or encourage people to have another child; families should make the decision,” it said.
Its line seemed to suggest that a cautious debate about relaxing the policy has reached the upper echelons of the Communist party.
“China accounted for 40% of the world’s population in the Qianlong period of the Qing dynasty, but today it accounts for 20%,” said Wang Xinhai, a social scientist. “So China should encourage people to have even three children,” he said.
Chinese officials are defensive about a widespread misconception that the one-child limit is imposed on every couple. In the countryside, people may have a second child if their first is a girl, or disabled. No restrictions apply to China’s minorities, including Tibetans and Uighur Muslims.
But Shanghai, which was the first modern city in China, is keeping up its pioneering role. Five other provinces have followed its lead by relaxing the rule requiring four years between births. A historic change of policy may be in the early stages of gestation.